Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.331406 2.477009 2.631283 2.807651 3.004609 3.218872 3.471060
2025-06-08 2.120049 2.319127 2.540877 2.808761 3.127182 3.498315 3.970930
2025-06-15 2.001733 2.233829 2.501514 2.838034 3.257270 3.773203 4.474746
2025-06-22 1.876375 2.123326 2.415247 2.793013 3.280471 3.906210 4.803567
2025-06-29 1.771639 2.027008 2.334868 2.742756 3.284726 4.006067 5.090709
2025-07-06 1.676860 1.935429 2.252086 2.679751 3.261974 4.061092 5.313741
2025-07-13 1.637398 1.909176 2.248191 2.716596 3.373338 4.309830 5.858525
2025-07-20 1.606642 1.891219 2.252418 2.762502 3.498617 4.589474 6.497574
2025-07-27 1.580192 1.876651 2.259114 2.810611 3.629173 4.889852 7.227965
2025-08-03 1.532381 1.831399 2.221698 2.793084 3.658965 5.031996 7.698450
2025-08-10 1.487709 1.788102 2.184348 2.772497 3.681047 5.161894 8.169559
2025-08-17 1.444369 1.744660 2.144465 2.745231 3.689469 5.267861 8.612811
2025-08-24 1.402709 1.702600 2.105534 2.718420 3.698593 5.379925 9.106351
2025-08-31 1.372747 1.675321 2.086047 2.719477 3.752936 5.580159 9.856419
2025-09-07 1.353160 1.661351 2.084480 2.747213 3.853310 5.879073 10.943851
2025-09-14 1.313863 1.618514 2.039454 2.704552 3.829124 5.931528 11.402867
2025-09-21 1.275447 1.575696 1.992827 2.656902 3.792522 5.954465 11.788918
2025-09-28 1.235643 1.529797 1.940135 2.597121 3.730304 5.917854 11.992192
2025-10-05 1.224677 1.524269 1.946457 2.632087 3.840581 6.258447 13.502521
2025-10-12 1.216573 1.522400 1.957890 2.675627 3.969950 6.661706 15.460693
2025-10-19 1.209293 1.521355 1.970320 2.721231 4.107110 7.107880 17.915599
2025-10-26 1.186567 1.497182 1.946639 2.704619 4.122134 7.264386 19.278290
2025-11-02 1.164195 1.472918 1.921989 2.685104 4.129812 7.404090 20.680187